Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. Update to January 2018 issue.

Published 4 February 2018.

Update.

Expected changes in the stratosphere illustrated by the ECMWF 30hPa sequence shown below may lead to an extension of “Winter” into early March due to increased chance of blocking and colder surface winds from an Easterly point.

030218SSW30hpa

This change may have been predicted by UKMO contingency forecast for February which suggested a colder and drier than normal February. Cansips (issued 31st Jan) hints at normal and locally colder temperatures for February. CFSv2 suggests colder and drier weather types for February and these may extend into the first half of March.

temprainseasonal

Forecast update.

The chance of a colder and drier February and start March for SW England is more likely than previously.

Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary and brief verification of previous Long Range Forecast summaries can be seen at   http://www.weatherservice.co.uk

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

References.

CFS2  info

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Free University Berlin

 

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