Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. June 2020.

Published 19 June 2020.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature

ssta03

Equatorial sea temperatures look warmer than climatology as are the N Sea, Norwegian Sea and Baltic sea temperature. The North Atlantic west of Britain remains mostly near or cooler than average towards North America. Colder sea temperatures in the East Pacific just south of the equator show the La Nina has strengthened.

tna_anom_20200601

The tropical north Atlantic is forecast to remain very slightly warmer than average through the remainder of 2020 (See Met Office graphic above).

No more Atlantic tropical storms are forecast for the remainder of June but there have been three tropical storms in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico this season. Names are Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal – see Wikipedia link to details.

In the Pacific neutral El-Nino conditions are likely to continue to trend towards cooler / La Nina conditions until later in the Autumn 2020. The GFDL model reverts to neutral or El Nino conditions rather faster than most models with the consensus being La Nina or neutral conditions into winter.

nino06

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has been  roughly neutral since mid May and is expected to remain so over the next few weeks.

nao06

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

June to 18th has seen temperatures near average after a very warm or even hot start to the month. Rainfall has been well above normal (typically 80 to 90mm locally double this over some hilly areas due to thundery outbreaks. Sunshine rangled from below average in in parts of Cornwall to near average further east (limited data).

Spring 2020 recorded above average temperatures (March was near normal) and well below normal rain although February was very wet and March had nearer normal rainfall.

2020MAMT2M

May temperatures were above average across much of the globe but there were some colder spots including a good part of Northern Europe.

EZuuhI2XQAENQNg

River flows in May 2020 reflected the drier Spring although groundwater levels were above normal. Details can be found in the April 2020 Hydrological summary PDF 

river06

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (14th  June) showed 77% storage.  Three of the main reservoirs are at 75 to 82% capacity but Burrator was down to 47%. The very wet 18th and night of 18th/19th will no doubt lift these values.

Global Flood Awareness System. June forecast has near normal flood risk for southern parts of UK (Orange below normal Blue above).

glofas06

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

After a long period with a strong polar vortex the Stratosphere settled into summer mode around the end of April and remains with an easterly circulation as shown by the 30hPa chart for 18th.

ecmwf30a12

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

CFSv2 200hPa contours for July to September 2020 are shown (top row) along with the anomalies from CFS (middle row) and the NMME anomalies (lower row). Forecast of above normal heights through the period.

z200JAS0620

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of  July to September solutions using June 2020 data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

In the WMO data white areas are where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal. Precipitation forecasts over the UK end up with no signal because the wet models cancel out the dry forecasts showing there is no agreement between the models.

WMOJAS062020

WMO

UKMOJAS062020

UKMO

TOULJAS062020

Meteo France

MOSCJAS062020

Russia

ECLWMOJAS062020

ECMWF

Other models

cfs2son06

CFS2 USA

son06nmme

NMME USA

NASAJAS0620

NASA 

The full selection, including plots for Autumn and Winter, can be seen at the weather-info site.

C: Comparing the output of seasonal models for  March April May 2020, based on February  2020 data.

Most models got the idea of above average UK temperatures but not the nearer average March. Dry signal could have been stronger but some ideas about the NW being the least dry was good.

For graphics and details see Verification review 2020 Mar Apr May

2. Forecast. SW England.

Remainder of  summer 2020  (July August) 

Slightly above average temperatures are expected for the summer season with higher anomalies possibly in the second half of the summer.

Very mixed rainfall patterns but an indication for a wetter than average July and a near normal August although the east could be drier than average. Summer rain can be showery or thundery in nature with wide variations in rain days and rain totals across a region. It is not clear of above average rain means more wet days or just some days with higher rain total which has been a feature of recent years.

Summer climate: 1981 to 2010 average daily mean temperature 14 or 15°C in many areas to 16 or 17°C in main urban areas also locally east of the moors and more widely in Somerset. Maximum temperatures average 19 to over 21°C in similar areas. July often warmer than August. Average 1981 to 2010 rain in July typically 60 to 80mm, but 40 to 60mm in places especially East of the moors and in Somerset. Locally over 100mm across the moors. August slightly small areas with the lower rain totals due to July often being drier than August.

Autumn 2020 (September October November) 

Overall above average temperature seems likely, especially later in the season. Rainfall very mixed indication, most models have some longer dry periods but do not agree which month might be the drier or wetter month. Overall signal is for near normal rain although eastern parts of the region could be drier than average.

Autumn climate: 1981 to 2010 average mean temperature 11 or 12°C but nearer 10°C in rural areas. Maximum temperatures average 14 to 16°C. November normally colder than October which is colder than September. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300 to 400mm, 600 to 800mm over the moors but east of the moors and in lowland Somerset more like 200 to 300mm. September often drier than October or November.

Winter (2020 December 2021 January February) limited data.

A milder than average winter in indicated although February could see temperatures nearer average. Rainfall could end up near average but at least one moth is likely to be wetter than average and again some longer drier spells are suggested but little agreement as to when. Below average snowfall (snow chiefly over the moors) is most likely.

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall; Dec and Jan typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Autumn average 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and ECMWF via  Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. April 2020.

Published 17 April 2020.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature

150420ssta

Equatorial sea temperatures look warmer than climatology as are the N Sea and Baltic sea temperature whereas the North Atlantic west of Britain remains near or cooler than average.

170420tna

The tropical north Atlantic is forecast to remain very slightly warmer than average through Spring and Summer 2020 (See Met Office graphic above).

170420nino

In the Pacific neutral or weak El-Nino conditions are likely to trend towards cooler / La Nina conditions during Summer and into early Autumn 2020. The CFSv2 model looks quicker than most of the other ensemble systems of the NMME in completing this transition. The timing of the change from El Nino to La Nina might impact on the Atlantic hurricane season, El Nino tending to depress the formation of Atlantic Tropical Storms

University College London forecast issued 7th April 2020 suggests that the Atlantic hurricane activity in 2020 may be 25% above the long-term norm: Intense Hurricanes=3 (70 year average 3) Hurricanes=8 (70 year av 6) Tropical Storms=16 (average 12). Met Office outlook available in May.

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has been mostly negative since then end of March but is forecast to be roughly neutral over the next few weeks.

170420NAO

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

April to the 16th has been very mild with temperature anomalies between 2 and 3 Celsius although cold easterly winds held windward coastal sites lower. It has also been extremely dry with only 3 to 6mm (1 to 4%) of the normal month rain. Rainfall totals were more than doubled on the 17th by a band of rain that moved north from France bringing 5 to 15mm of rain.

170420jfmclim

River flows in March 2020 reflected the very wet conditions in February followed by nearer normal rain in March with high river flows in most areas except for Aberdeenshire. It is perhaps a surprise that groundwater in eastern England is still below average. Details can be found in the March 2020 Hydrological summary PDF 

070420river

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (12th April) showed 95% storage. All main reservoirs are at over 90% capacity.

120420res

Global Flood Awareness System. April forecast (high) risk for early part of the forecast decreasing through to July 2020 and largely reflects the well above average rain in February and early March.

170420glofas

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

A second phase of significant warming occurred at 10hPa and more recently down to 30hPa as the very persistent stratospheric polar vortex slowly warms out.

170420jmastrat

ECMWF 10 and 30hPa 16/1200UTC data shows that despite ongoing warming the polar stratospheric vortex is reluctant to be eroded completely but forecast for the 26th shows than warming out is almost complete and the transition to summer mode should take place by the end of April.

160420stratec

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

CFSv2 200hPa contours for May to August 2020 are shown (top row) along with the anomalies from CFS (lower row) and NMME (middle row). Suggestion of  above normal heights through the period.

0420z200mjja

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of May to July solutions using April 2020 data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO data.

WMOMJJ042020

WMO combined multi model ensemble 

UKMOMJJ042020

UKMO

TOULMJJ042020

Meteo France

MOSCMJJ042020

Russian Met Centre

MONTMJJ042020

Canada

ECLWMOMJJ042020

ECMWF

BOMMJJ042020

BoM Australia

SEOUMJJ042020

Korea Met Agency

A selection of June to August solutions using April 2020 data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

NMMEJJA0420

NMME Summer 2020

CFS2JJA0420

CFS2 summer 2020

NASAJJA0420

NASA summer 2020

ECEJJA042020

ECMWF summer 2020

UKMOJJA042020

UKMO summer 2020

The full selection can be seen at the weather-info site.

C: Comparing the output of seasonal models for January, February and March 2020, based on December 2019 data.

Observed three month period was above average but did anyone get the trend to cooler/near normal in March?

Forecast temperature summary was good for the three month forecast with some idea of less mild in north later.

Observed rainfall for the three month period was above average but largely due to a very wet February, January and March were near or below average across the UK.

Rainfall was OK with the above average indication but not the drier east of UK in Jan and Mar. The seasonal total rain swamped by the very wet Feb.

For graphics and details see Verification review 2020 Jan Feb Mar from December 2019

2. Forecast. SW England.

End of Spring 2020  (May) 

Most models suggest above average temperatures for May.

Precipitation is uncertain but most models suggest  drier than average.

May climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain typically 60 to 80mm. Locally as low as 40mm in parts of E Devon and over areas of Somerset but 100 to 150mm over the moors.

Summer 2020  (June July August)  limited data

Slightly above average temperatures are expected for the summer season with July suggested as the month least likely to have above normal values (a change from last month which suggested June rather than July).

Very mixed rainfall patterns but an indication for a drier than average June but possibly wetter July. August solutions split between wetter and drier. Summer rain can be showery or thundery in nature with wide variations in rain days and rain totals across a region.

Summer climate: 1981 to 2010 average daily mean temperature 14 or 15°C in many areas to 16 or 17°C in main urban areas also locally east of the moors and more widely in Somerset. Maximum temperatures average 19 to over 21°C in similar areas. July often warmer than August. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300mm over the moors, typically 200 to 250mm in many coastal and eastern areas. June often drier than July and July drier than August.

Autumn 2020 (September October November) limited data.

Overall near or above average temperature and above average rainfall is suggested for the season but no agreement for any particular month to be wetter or drier.

Autumn climate: 1981 to 2010 average mean temperature 11 or 12°C but nearer 10°C in rural areas. Maximum temperatures average 14 to 16°C. November normally colder than October which is colder than September. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300 to 400mm, 600 to 800mm over the moors but east of the moors and in lowland Somerset more like 200 to 300mm. September often drier than October or November.

Winter (2020 December 2021 January February) very limited data.

A milder than average winter in indicated with near or above average rainfall and below average snowfall (snow chiefly over the moors).

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall; Dec and Jan typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Autumn average 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and ECMWF via  Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. March 2020.

Published 20 March 2020.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature.

160320ssta

Noticeable changes in the Atlantic include a much larger area of cooler than average North Atlantic sea temperatures to the west of the UK and Eire also a much warmer area near the equator between Africa and South America. The North Sea, Baltic and Med remain above normal.

tna_anom_20200301

The tropical north Atlantic is forecast to remain very slightly warmer than average through Spring and Summer 2020 (See Met Office graphic above).

180320nin34

In the Pacific neutral or weak El-Nino conditions are present but forecasts suggest conditions are likely to trend cooler during Summer and into early Autumn 2020 – see CFSv2 and NMME multi model ensemble forecast above.

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has been mostly positive since early December 2019 and is forecast to remain slightly positive over the next week before trending negative at the end of March which might hint at a colder start to Spring.

190320nao

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

March, to the 19th, has been slightly cloudier, milder and wetter than average.

Winter, as can be seen in the graphics below, has been very mild and in most places wet due to a very wet February.

190320djf

190320winter

River flows in February 2020 reflected the very wet conditions with high river flows in most areas apart from Aberdeenshire. It is perhaps a surprise that groundwater in eastern England is still below average. Details can be found in the February 2020 Hydrological summary PDF 

1903river

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (15th  March) showed 97.5% storage. The less than 100% value is due to Colliford as the the other main reservoirs are at 100% capacity.

190320res

Global Flood Awareness System March forecast (high) risk through to June 2020 largely reflects the well above average rain in February and early March. The risk reduces from late April or early May.

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

A second phase of significant warming is occurring at 10hPa and to some extent at 50hPa but from unusually low temperature values.

190320strat1

ECMWF 10 and 50hPa 18/1200UTC data shows that despite ongoing warming the polar stratospheric vortex is reluctant to be eroded completely.

190320strat2

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

CFSv2 200hPa contours for April to August 2020 are shown below (top row) along with the anomalies from CFS (middle row) and NMME (lower row). Suggestion of  enhanced Atlantic jet for April towards or just north of the UK imply unsettled types but possibly higher pressure further south.

z200AMJja0320

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of April to June solutions using March 2020 data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO data. Problems with the WMO web site in South Korea has made access to this data difficult.

APRIL TO JUNE 2020

UKMOAMJ032020

UKMO

CPTECAMJ032020

Brazil Met Service

DWDAMJ032020

German Met Service

MONTAMJ032020

Canadian Met Service

BOMAMJ032020

Australian Met Service

If they become available further examples from WMO will be added to the weather-info site.

ECEAMJ032020

ECMWF

NASAAJM0320

NASA USA

190320cfs

CFS2 USA

190320nmme

NMME USA

SUMMER JUNE TO AUGUST 2020

ECEJJA032020

ECMWF

NASAJJA0320

NASA

190320CFS2JJA

CFS2

190320NMMEJJA

NMME

C: Comparing the output of seasonal models for December 2019,  January and February 2020, based on November data.

Observed Temperature. Well above average for the season and each month.

Forecast temperature:  Most models forecast the above normal temperatures but perhaps not the detail.

Observed Rainfall. Above average all areas thanks to an exceptionally wet February. January was the relatively less wet month.

Precipitation Forecast: Above average rainfall was forecast but the much wetter February was not well forecast with some models suggesting a less wet month.

Observed Pressure. Below average but near or slightly above in far South.

Pressure Forecast was correct.

For graphics and details see Verification review 2019 Dec 2020 Jan Feb from Nov data.

2. Forecast. SW England.

Spring 2020  (April May) 

Some models suggesting near normal temperatures for April and perhaops early May and then above normal but models seem not to be able to reliably predict colder months. The near average signal may imply a colder than average April.

Precipitation is uncertain but probably a drier than average period in April and possibly early May before a return to near normal rainfall amounts.

Spring climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 9 or 10°C but a few degrees cooler over the moors. Roughly Mar 7 or 8°C Apr 8 or 9°C  May 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 200 to 300mm lowest values in E Devon and over parts of Somerset.

Summer 2020  (June July August)  limited data

Near or perhaps only slightly above average temperatures are expected for the summer season with June suggested as the month least likely to have above normal values. Very mixed rainfall patterns but an overall indication for a drier than average summer, although August could be wetter than average.

Summer climate: 1981 to 2010 average daily mean temperature 14 or 15°C in many areas to 16 or 17°C in main urban areas also locally east of the moors and more widely in Somerset. Maximum temperatures average 19 to over 21°C in similar areas. July often warmer than August. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300mm over the moors, typically 200 to 250mm in many coastal and eastern areas. June often drier than July and July drier than August.

Autumn 2020 (September October November) limited data.

Overall above average temperature and rainfall is suggested for the season but  September could be drier than average.

Autumn climate: 1981 to 2010 average mean temperature 11 or 12°C but nearer 10°C in rural areas. Maximum temperatures average 14 to 16°C. November normally colder than October which is colder than September. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300 to 400mm, 600 to 800mm over the moors but east of the moors and in lowland Somerset more like 200 to 300mm. September often drier than October or November.

Winter 2020 (2020 December 2021 January February) very limited data.

Another milder than average winter in indicated with near average rainfall resulting in below average snowfall (snow chiefly over the moors).

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall; Dec and Jan typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Autumn average 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. February 2020.

Published 24 February 2020 (delayed due laptop failure).

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature.

210220ssta

Changed map. Now using 5km rather than 50km sea temperature anomaly data

North Atlantic sea temperatures remain above average apart from a cooler section in Mid Atlantic to the west of Ireland.  The southern North Sea and the Baltic as well as Arctic area show values well above average.

tna_anom_20200201

The tropical north Atlantic was again analysed as slightly below normal but is forecast to remain very slightly warmer than average through Spring and early Summer 2020 (See Met Office graphic above). The forecast has been a little quick to lift temperatures over recent issues.

0220nino34

In the Pacific neutral or weak El-Nino conditions are present but forecasts suggest conditions are likely to trend cooler during Summer 2020 – see CFSv2 and NMME multi model ensemble forecast above.

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has been mostly positive since early December 2019 and is forecast to remain slightly positive over the next week or so but trending lower before mid March.

0220nao

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

February (to 23rd) has been very mild across the south of the UK with temperatures running about two degrees above average and in places over double the normal rainfall.

0220clim

Given the February data, Winter (Dec to Feb) will turn out to have been unusually mild and wetter than average.

River flows and groundwater in January 2020 reflected the much wetter conditions in December and will no doubt be above average following the rain in February. Groundwater in eastern England shows signs of recovery. Details can be found in the January 2020 Hydrological summary PDF 

0220ground

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (16th  February) showed 92% storage. The less than 100% value is due to Roadford and Colliford as the the three other main reservoirs are at 100% capacity.

res0220

Global Flood Awareness System February forecast risk through to May 2020 largely reflects the well above average rain this winter.

0220glofas

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

The polar stratospheric vortex moved east and reduced due to a significant warming event, as shown by the 10hPa temperature plot at the North Pole but this was quickly reversed as the vortex strengthened again becoming an unusually strong circulation.

strat1

ECMWF 10 and 50hPa 23/1200UTC data shows the strong vortex. Changes over the following 10 days may result in a reversal of the stratospheric wind over Europe early in March. This in turn implies a less mobile weather pattern could develop later in March at least over southern UK, although this development is not clear cut.

The stratospheric low temperatures and the static nature of the vortex recently has again allowed a reduction in total column Ozone to values just above the nominal “Ozone Hole” number of 220DU. The chart below shows the departure from average of the total column ozone.

o3current

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

CFSv2 200hPa contours for March to May 2020 are shown below (top row) along with the anomalies from CFS (lower row). Suggestion of  enhanced Atlantic jet for March across the northern part of the UK imply unsettled types but this risk reduces for April and May.

z200MAM0220

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of March to May (Spring) solutions using February 2020 data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO super ensemble (BoM, CMC, Moscow, DWD, CPTEC, Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF) UKMO,  Beijing and Pretoria not available from WMO but are available elsewhere.

WMOMAM022020

WMO multi ensemble

UKMOMAM022020

UKMO

MOSCMAM022020

Russia

ECLWMOMAM022020

ECMWF

BOMMAM022020

Australia

Further examples from WMO are available at the weather-info site.

NASAMAM0220

NASA

nmmemam0220

NMME Spring

mam010220e3

USA CFSv2 E3 version Spring 2020

Selected June to August summer graphics.

nmmejja0220

NMME summer 2020

NASAJJA0220

NASA summer

C: Comparing the output of seasonal models for November December 2019  January 2020, based on October data.

UK area based on September 2019 data.

Temperature:
Good signal for above average temperature for the season BUT very few models suggested a colder November. NASA had a good trend and NMME had lower anomalies for November increasing in subsequent months.
Rainfall:
Generally poor indication for drier areas month to month. Overall signal for a wetter than average three months was OK but detail was poor.

For graphics and details see Verification review 2019 Nov Dec 2020 Jan from Oct data.

2. Forecast. SW England.

Spring 2020  (March April May) 

Models seem not to be able to reliably predict colder months (eg forecast for November), so despite a strong signal for above average temperatures for the season a near normal or  colder than average spell seems possible some time in March/April. This idea would fit with the changes expected in the stratosphere.

Precipitation for the season as a whole is uncertain but probably a drier than average period in March/April. then a return to near normal rainfall amounts. fewer than average wet days.

Spring climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 9 or 10°C but a few degrees cooler over the moors. Roughly Mar 7 or 8°C Apr 8 or 9°C  May 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 200 to 300mm lowest values in E Devon and over parts of Somerset.

Summer 2020  (June July August)  limited data

Near or slightly above average temperatures are expected for the summer season but  August values could be closer to normal.  Rainfall patterns very mixed but the wetter than average solutions for the season as a whole look to outweigh the drier ones. No reliable indication for any month being especially drier.

Summer climate: 1981 to 2010 average daily mean temperature 14 or 15°C in many areas to 16 or 17°C in main urban areas also locally east of the moors and more widely in Somerset. Maximum temperatures average 19 to over 21°C in similar areas. July often warmer than August. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300mm over the moors, typically 200 to 250mm in many coastal and eastern areas. June often drier than July and July drier than August.

Autumn 2020 (September October November) limited data.

Overall above average temperature and rainfall is suggested for the season but October could be drier and colder than average according to two out of the three available models.

Autumn climate: 1981 to 2010 average mean temperature 11 or 12°C but nearer 10°C in rural areas. Maximum temperatures average 14 to 16°C. November normally colder than October which is colder than September. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300 to 400mm, 600 to 800mm over the moors but east of the moors and in lowland Somerset more like 200 to 300mm. September often drier than October or November.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. January 2020.

Published 17 January  2020.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature.

170120ssta

North Atlantic and North Pacific sea temperature anomalies continue to show above average values although both areas, roughly between 40 and 60 degrees North, show some cooler well mixed areas probably due to due to storms. The North Sea is slightly above the long satellite term average.

tna_anom_20200101

The tropical north Atlantic was analysed as slightly below normal but is forecast to remain very slightly warmer than average through Spring and early Summer 2020 (See Met Office graphic above).

In the Pacific neutral or weak El-Nino conditions are present and forecasts suggest conditions are likely to remain similar over winter then trend cooler during Summer 2020 – see CFSv2 and NMME multi model ensemble forecast below.

150120nino

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has been positive since early December 2019 – implying a milder, wetter, winter 2019/2020. However ensemble forecasts show a trend to a negative phase in about a weeks time which fits in with forecast for high pressure to develop over the UK. The forecast shown in the December review suggested a negative NAO but in practice the diagnostic remained positive (just).

150120nao

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

The first half of January has seen temperatures well above average, the anomaly to the 17th being between plus 2 and plus 3 Celsius, although colder temperatures to come may reduce this for the month as a whole. Rainfall has been above average with some places already close to the January total and sunshine looks to have been below average.

Temperature and rainfall anomalies for October to December 2019 are shown below. A  summary for the Teignmouth and Dawlish area is available here.

ONDtemp

CET

Central England temperature series updated to Min January 2020

Despite the mostly drier October, for the three months rainfall was above average across SW England

ONDppn

Europe anomalies for 2019 are shown below.

year2019

River flows and groundwater in December reflect the much wetter conditions though it is interesting to see that groundwater in eastern England remains low. Details can be found in the December 2019 Hydrological summary PDF 

170120river

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (12th January) show 86% storage, which is above normal for the time of year. The less than full percentage seems to be due to Roadford and Colliford with the three other main reservoirs being at capacity.

170120res

Global Flood Awareness System January risk forecast through to April 2020 largely reflects the well above average rain in November and December.

170120glo

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

The North Polar stratospheric vortex, after its weakening and migration east in Nov/Dec, returned over the pole and became very strong with very low temperatures near the centre.  Further warming incidents may again move the vortex centre eastwards over the next few weeks.

150120

The stratospheric low temperatures (eg: below minus 80 Celius at 50hPa) and the strength and static nature of the vortex over recent weeks has allowed a reduction in total column Ozone to values just above the nominal “Ozone Hole” number of 220DU.

170120ozone

The transfer east of the North Polar stratospheric vortex may allow greater mixing and redistribution of the ozone over the next month.

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

CFSv2 contours for February March and April are shown below (top row) along with the anomalies from CFS (middle row) and NMME (lower row). CFSv2 in particular suggest enhanced Atlantic jet for February and March across the northern part of the UK.

z200FMA0120

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of February to April solutions using January 2020 data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO super ensemble (BoM, CMC, Moscow, DWD, CPTEC, Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF) UKMO,  Beijing and Pretoria not available in time for this publication from WMO but are available elsewhere.

WMOFMA012020

WMO 10 model composite ensemble

BOMFMA012020

BoM – one of the colder solutions.

WASHFMA012020

CFS2 – Washington – tends to be warm

TOULFMA012020

MeteoFr 

Further examples from WMO are available at the weather-info site.

nmmefmam0120

NMME  Feb to May

ECEFMAM012020

ECMWF Feb to May 

 

NASAFMAM0120

NASA Feb to May

Summer 2020

nmmejja0120

NMME June July August 2020

NASAJJA0120

NASA June July August

C: Comparing how well the models did for October, November December 2019.

UK area based on September 2019 data.

Temperature:
Most models were overly warm but there was a good indication of a much milder December although the colder November and to some extent October was not well forecast. Models that got colder values did not get the upturn in December. NASA got the trend reasonably well.
Rainfall:
Month to month detail was poor although some indication in NMME data was good. For the season WMO gave a hint at wetter in SW UK and Eire.

For graphics and details see Verification review Oct Nov Dec 2019 from Septemberg forecasts.

2. Forecast. SW England.

Remainder of Winter  (February 2020) 

The indication for a milder than average February remains the main signal but there is uncertainty in evolution of any significant stratospheric warming which might lead to a less mobile (westerly) pattern and hence nearer average or even cold solutions for a time later in the month.

February could be less wet than earlier winter months with nearer average rainfall, perhaps above average in exposed western areas and drier than average east of the moors.

Risk of snow mainly for the moors and temporary in nature.

February Climate: 1981-2010 Temperature; average temperature values for lowland areas 5 or 6°C but over 6°C in West Cornwall. Rainfall;  February. 1981-2010 average 80-100mm mm lowlands but 60-80mm in areas to E of Dartmoor and 40-80mm East of Exmoor. Over the Moors 100-250mm. .

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall;  January typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Winter 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

Spring 2020  (March April May) 

Near or slightly above average temperature for the season but in some models March and in others May is indicated as being a less mild month (relative to its average). Precipitation uncertain but probably near or a little above average but perhaps fewer than average wet days.

Spring climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 9 or 10°C but a few degrees cooler over the moors. Roughly Mar 7 or 8°C Apr 8 or 9°C  May 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 200 to 300mm lowest values in E Devon and over parts of Somerset.

Summer 2020  (June July August)  limited data

Slightly above average temperature but possibly nearer normal in August. Rainfall uncertain but indications for near or perhaps slightly above average for the season overall though some longer drier periods suggested sometime in the July/August period but probably not a whole calendar month.

Summer climate: 1981 to 2010 average daily mean temperature 14 or 15°C in many areas to 16 or 17°C in main urban areas also locally east of the moors and more widely in Somerset. Maximum temperatures average 19 to over 21°C in similar areas. July often warmer than August. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300mm over the moors, typically 200 to 250mm in many coastal and eastern areas. June often drier than July and July drier than August.

Autumn 2020 (September October November) early indications with minimal data.

Slightly above normal or normal temperatures and near normal rain though hints at drier October.

Autumn climate: 1981 to 2010 average mean temperature 11 or 12°C but nearer 10°C in rural areas. Maximum temperatures average 14 to 16°C. November normally colder than October which is colder than September. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300 to 400mm, 600 to 800mm over the moors but east of the moors and in lowland Somerset more like 200 to 300mm. September often drier than October or November.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. December 2019.

Published 18 December  2019.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature.

161219SSTA

North Atlantic and North Pacific sea temperature anomalies continue to show above average values although the North Atlantic roughly between 40 and 60 degrees north shows some well mixed areas due to Atlantic storms with cooling in eastern parts to the west of Europe.

tna_anom_20191201

The tropical north Atlantic is forecast to remain very slightly warmer than average through Spring 2020 (See Met Office graphic above).

In the Pacific neutral or weak El-Nino conditions are present and forecasts suggest conditions are likely to remain similar over winter then trend cooler from about late Spring 2020 – see CFSv2 and NMME multi model ensemble forecast below.

1219nino

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has been positive since early December 2019 – implying a milder, wetter, winter 2019/2020. However ensemble forecasts show a trend to a negative phase in about a weeks time which if maintained could lead to colder weather types for the UK.

1219nao

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

The first half of December has seen above average rainfall across SW England, except perhaps in the far West of Cornwall were values have been near or even slightly below average. Temperatures have also been slightly above average, again except for the far West of Cornwall which has been near average.

Temperature and rainfall anomalies for Autumn 2019 are shown below. A more local summary for the Teignmouth and Dawlish area is available here.

1219clim

Europe anomalies for Autumn 2019 are shown below.

map_SON_anomaly_Europe_ea_hydro_201909-201911_v01

 

River flows and groundwater in November reflect the much wetter conditions though it is interesting to see that groundwater in eastern England in November had still not recovered to normal. Details can be found in the November 2019 Hydrological summary PDF 

1219riverflow

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (15th December) show 82% storage, which is above normal for the time of year.

151219reslev

Global Flood Awareness System December forecast through to March 2019 largely reflects the well above average rain in November and early December.

1219glowfas

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

The North Polar stratospheric vortex shifted east (relative to 00Deg W), as shown by the ECMWF 50hPa and 10hPa charts for 1200UTC on the 8th December. This led to a reversal of the stratospheric winds over North America and may be contributing to the recent colder types in that region. The vortex has started to edge back towards the pole as shown in the plot for the 17th December 2019, with an associated strengthening of the stratospheric winds and of the vortex.

Further warming is occurring and this may lead to another reshaping and displacement of the vortex over the next few weeks. This suggests there is some risk of a sudden warming leading to a change in European weather types in mid to late January. Current seasonal forecasts do not suggest a change persistent colder types at present.

1812196strat

Plot of 10hPa GFS model zonal wind history and forecast (Source @HannahAttard)

1219strathattard

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

Combined NCAR and CFSv2 200hPa averaged monthly mean height contours and anomalies (below).

Period January to March 2020. Indication of above normal heights throughout with marked ridging in February and hints at stronger than average Atlantic jet in March.

z200JFM1219

Period March to May 2020. Indication of above normal heights throughout but with hints at stronger than average Atlantic jet in March and April.

z200MAM1219

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of January to March 2020 solutions using December data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO super ensemble (BoM, CMC, Moscow, DWD, CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF) Tokyo, Beijing and Pretoria missing but Tokyo and Beijing data is available on their respective web sites.

WMOJFM122019

WMO super ensemble

UKMOJFM122019.png

UKMO

Further examples from WMO are available at the weather-info site.

ECEJFM122019

ECMWF  Jan to March 2020

nmme12JFM

NMME Jan to March 

E3JFM

CFS2 E3 (mean of 10 days model output) for January to March 2020

NASAJFM1219

NASA January to March

Spring 2020

ECEMAM122019

ECMWF for Spring 2020

NASAMAM1219

NASA for Spring 2020

nmme12MAM

NMME for Spring 2020

Summer 2020

NASAJJA1219

NASA for summer 2020

nmme12JJA

NMME Summer 2020

For SW England there remains a consensus for above normal temperatures and for above normal precipitation through the remainder of Winter and into Spring though less consensus for summer rainfall.

C: Comparing how well the models did for the Autumn, September to November 2019.

Poor temperature forecasts. BoM and perhaps Tokyo hinted at cooling trend but not colder than average. Most models failed to get colder signal. Rainfall signal for wetter in south was good but models in general were poor with only a few hinting at the drier Scotland.

For graphics and details see Verification review Autumn 2019 from August forecasts.

2. Forecast. SW England.

Remainder of Winter  (January and February 2020) 

Increased uncertainty due to changes in stratosphere.

The indication for a milder than average winter as a whole remains the main signal. Some hints that February could be nearer normal.

Precipitation for the winter as a whole is likely to be above average with some hints that parts of January or February could be less wet but no consistent indication. Given that the first half of winter has been wetter than average it seems likely that a drier period is on the cards although this could be temporary.

Risk of snow mainly for the moors and temporary in nature.

The signal for windier than usual conditions continues but with pressure near normal or even above normal close to the south of the UK this may be a feature of the weather further north and may be less evident in January.

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall;  January typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Winter 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

Spring 2020  (March April May) 

Above average temperature for the season but in some models May continues to be indicated as being a less mild month (relative to its average). Precipitation uncertain but probably near or a little above average.

Spring climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 9 or 10°C but a few degrees cooler over the moors. Roughly Mar 7 or 8°C Apr 8 or 9°C  May 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 200 to 300mm lowest values in E Devon and over parts of Somerset.

Summer 2020  (June July August)  limited data

Slightly above average temperature but possibly nearer normal in August. Rainfall uncertain but indications for near or perhaps slightly above average for the season overall.

Summer climate: 1981 to 2010 average daily mean temperature 14 or 15°C in many areas to 16 or 17°C in main urban areas also locally east of the moors and more widely in Somerset. Maximum temperatures average 19 to over 21°C in similar areas. July often warmer than August. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300mm over the moors, typically 200 to 250mm in many coastal and eastern areas. June often drier than July and July drier than August.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. November 2019.

Published 17 November  2019.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature.

141119ssta

North Atlantic and North Pacific sea temperature anomalies continue to show above average values although the North Atlantic roughly between 50 and 60 degrees north shows some well mixed areas due to Atlantic storms.

tna_anom_20191101

The tropical north Atlantic is forecast to remain very slightly warmer than average through to at least Spring 2020 (See Met Office graphic above).

In the Pacific neutral or weak El-Nino conditions continue and forecasts suggest conditions are likely to remain similar over winter and and probably through to Spring 2020 – see CFSv2 and NMME multi model ensemble forecast below.

201911nino

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has recently turned positive which if maintained implies a milder, wetter, winter 2019/2020. However it is  far from clear that this will be the case and the majority of the enesmeble forecast show a dip to a negative phase over the next week or two.

201911nao

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

The first half of November has been wetter than average with only on or two days with no measurable rain. Rain totals range from over 100mm in some western and hilly areas to 50mm in the east, that’s over 90% of the typical November rain in western areas.  Temperature means have been around 7 or 8 Celsius which is above half a degree or so below the 1981 to 2010 average and it has been cold enough for sleet over some higher hills and snow over the moors giving a covering. Sunshine has typically been below average.

Temperature and rainfall anomalies for June to October are shown below. Please note you can view the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary here.

201911clim

Europe anomalies over the last 12 months November 2018 to October (Copernicus data), shown below, show the UK and Scandinavia with below average temperature in an otherwise above average region. Southern UK has also been wetter than average.

2019year.png

Meanwhile October global temperatures show a warming trend compared to 1981 to 2010 average.

201910globe

River flows and groundwater in October reflect the wetter conditions but groundwater in eastern England has still not recovered to normal. Details can be found in the October 2019 Hydrological summary PDF 

201910river

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (10th November) show 76% storage, above normal levels for the time of year.

201911res

Global Flood Awareness System has been upgraded but data starting in November is not yet available.

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

North Polar vortex forming in the Stratosphere is in winter mode as shown by the ECMWF 50hPa chart for 1200UTC 15th November 2019. There are signs of warming causing the vortex to split relocate eastwards and this might result in a less mobile Atlantic pattern which may develop in mid December. This is not born out by long range forecast at present. Plot of 10hPa GFS model zonal wind shown below the 50hPa plots.

16111950hpa

u_65N_10hpa_gefs

GFS forecast for 10hPa showing marked weakening of zonal wind associated with weakening or movement of the stratospheric vortex. Thanks to @HannahAttard.

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

NMME (top) and combined NCAR and CFSv2 200hPa averaged monthly mean anomalies (middle) compared to CFS2 forecast height contours (lower row) for the period December 2019 to February 2020, based on November data, Indication of above normal heights throughout but with hints at stronger than average Atlantic jet.

z200DJF1119

For Spring 2020, again above normal heights with less  signal for enhanced jet flow.

z200MAM1119

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of December 2019 to February 2020 solutions in low resolution from WMO using November data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are area where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO super ensemble (BoM, CMC, Moscow, DWD, CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF) Beijing and Pretoria missing but Beijing data is available on their web site.

WMONDJ112019

WMO super ensemble

UKMONDJ112019

UKMO seasonal

BOMNDJ112019

BoM seasonal – along with Moscow represents the two colder solutions.

ECLWMONDJ112019

ECMWF seasonal DJF 

WASHNDJ112019

Washington seasonal 

The complete set of graphics including NASA and NMME graphics is available at the weather-info site.

Fewer models for Spring 2020

NASAMAM1119.png

NASA seasonal March April May 2020 (Nov 2019 data)

201911E3spring.png

CFS2 E3 data seasonal forecast Spring 2020 data November 2019.

201911nmmespring

NMME data November 2020 forecast for Spring 2020.

For SW England there remains is a strong consensus for above normal temperatures and for above normal precipitation at least through winter.

C: Recent results for (August to October 2019):

Temperature forecast for above normal for the season were OK although some output may be a little warm and the less warm September was not well forecast. Many precipitation forecasts were poor but the overall trend  to wetter types was suggested especially for SW England although the month to month detail was poor.

Comparison graphics can be seen at the verification page for July August September 2019

More recently models were slow to pick up a colder first half of November but may recover the average in the second half of the month.

2. Forecast. SW England.

Winter  (2019 December 2020 January February) 

Increased uncertainty due to changes in stratosphere.

The indication for a milder than average winter remains the main signal. Only two models suggest a colder season and one or two indicate less mild months, notably February.  Precipitation is likely to be above average with some hints that February could be less wet but no consistent indication for any specifically drier month. Below average snowfall is more likely than above average. The signal for windier than usual conditions continues but with pressure near normal or even above normal close to the south of the UK this may be a feature of the weather further north.

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall; Dec and Jan typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Autumn average 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

Spring 2020  (March April May) limited data

Above average temperature for the season but in some models May is indicated at being  a less mild month (relative to its average). Precipitation uncertain but probably near or a little above average early in the season but less strong indications for later in the season.

Spring climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 9 or 10°C but a few degrees cooler over the moors. Roughly Mar 7 or 8°C Apr 8 or 9°C  May 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 200 to 300mm lowest values in E Devon and over parts of Somerset.

Summer 2020  (June July August)  limited data

Slightly above average temperatures but possibly near normal for August. Rainfall uncertain but some indications for a drier August with overall rainfall near or perhaps slightly above average.

Summer climate: 1981 to 2010 average daily mean temperature 14 or 15°C in many areas to 16 or 17°C in main urban areas also locally east of the moors and more widely in Somerset. Maximum temperatures average 19 to over 21°C in similar areas. July often warmer than August. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300mm over the moors, typically 200 to 250mm in many coastal and eastern areas. June often drier than July and July drier than August.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

 

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. October 2019.

Published 16 October  2019.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature.

1019SSTA

North Atlantic and North Pacific sea temperature anomalies continue to show above average values although the area between Newfoundland and Ireland shows some well mixed areas. The tropical north Atlantic is forecast to remain warmer than average through to at least Spring 2020 (See Met Office graphic below).

tna_anom_20191001

In the Pacific neutral or weak El-Nino conditions continue and forecasts suggest conditions are likely to remain similar through to Spring 2020 – see CFSv2 and NMME multi model ensemble forecast below.

1019nino

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has recently been in a negative phase but is forecast to turn slightly positive within a week or two. A positive phase, if maintained, implies a milder wetter winter 2019/2020.

1019nao

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

October to date has been wetter than average with only on or two days with no measurable rain and in some places rain every day. Temperature though continue above average.

Temperature and rainfall anomalies for July to September are shown below. Please note you can view the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary here.

10JAS

Europe anomalies over the last 12 months (September 2018-2019 Copernicus data).

map_12month_anomaly_Europe_ea_hydro_201909_v01 (1)

Global temperature anomaly over the last 12 months (2018-2019 Copernicus data).

map_12month_anomaly_Global_ea_2t_201909_v01[1]

 

River flows and groundwater in August reflect wetter month but for parts of the E/SE of England drier types have left significantly low river flows and groundwater values. Soil moisture deficit is extensive across much of England and Wales . Details can be found in the Septem 2019 Hydrological summary PDF 

1019river

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (13th October) show 66% storage which was above normal levels for the time of year.

1019res

Looking ahead (October to January) the experimental product from the Global Flood Awareness System (Version 2) suggests reduced flood risk for the SW over the next few months although local flash flooding would not be included in this. This seems at odds with the seasonal forecast output (shown later) which suggests increased rainfall.

1019glofas

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

North Polar vortex forming in the Stratosphere which is moving into winter mode as shown by the ECMWF 50hPa chart for 1200UTC 15th October 2019.

1019strat

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

NCAR and CFSv2 200hPa averaged monthly mean forecast height (contours) and anomaly (lower row) for the period November 2019 to February 2020, based on October data, shows above normal heights throughout but with hints at stronger than average Atlantic jet in December and possible February 2020.

1019200hpa.png

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of November 2019 to January 2020 solutions in low resolution from WMO using October data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are area where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO super ensemble which includes UKMO, DWD, CMC, BoM, Seoul, Washington, ECMWF, Toulouse, Brazil.

WMONDJ102019

WMO super ensemble

UKMONDJ102019

UKMO

BOMNDJ102019

BoM one of the few colder solutions

ECLWMONDJ102019

ECMWF

the complete set of graphics is available at weather-info site.

Graphics For the winter period December 2019 to February 2020

1019NMMEDJF

NMME 8th October WINTER

1019NASADJF

NASA Winter

1019ECMWFDJF

ECMWF winter

1019E3CFS2DJF

CFS2 (E3 data) 8th October. Winter.

For SW England there is a strong consensus for above normal temperatures and for above normal precipitation.

C: Recent results for (July to September 2019):

Temperature forecast for above normal for the season were good although some output may be a little warm. Many precipitation forecasts were poor but the overall trend  to wetter types was suggested although the month to month detail was poor.

Comparison graphics can be seen at the verification page for July August September 2019

2. Forecast. SW England.

Remainder of Autumn 2019  (November)

November is likely to see above normal temperatures and normal or above normak rainfall.

November climate: 1981 to 2010 average mean temperature 8 or 9C°C.  Average 1981 to 2010 rain 60 to 100mm East of the moors, 100-200mm west of the moors but over 250mm over the moors. 

Winter  (2019 December 2020 January February) 

The indication for a milder than average winter remains the main signal although hints at December being nearer normal with the largest anomalies compared to the average being later in the winter.  Precipitation is likely to be above average with no clear indication for any specifically drier month. Below average snowfall is more likely than above average. Possibly increased number of gales.

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall; Dec and Jan typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Autumn average 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

Spring 2020  (March April May) limited data

Above average temperature for the season but May could be a less mild month. Precipitation uncertain  but probably near or above average though some hints that March could be drier.

Spring climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 9 or 10°C but a few degrees cooler over the moors. Roughly Mar 7 or 8°C Apr 8 or 9°C  May 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 200 to 300mm lowest values in E Devon and over parts of Somerset.

Summer 2020  (June July August)  very limted data

A warmer and possibly drier than average summer is possible.

Summer climate: 1981 to 2010 average daily mean temperature 14 or 15°C in many areas to 16 or 17°C in main urban areas also locally east of the moors and more widely in Somerset. Maximum temperatures average 19 to over 21°C in similar areas. July often warmer than August. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300mm over the moors, typically 200 to 250mm in many coastal and eastern areas. June often drier than July and July drier than August.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

 

 

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. September 2019.

Published 18 September 2019.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature.

ssta09

Except for a cooler area around Spain and to the north of Scotland the Atlantic continued to warm above the long term average. Cooler water can be seen near ther Bahamas following recent tropical storms. In general the tropical area is forecast to remain slightly above average through to Spring 2020.

tna_anom_20190901

In the Pacific neutral or weak El-Nino conditions have become establish and are likely to remain through the remainder of Autumn, into Winter and spring  – see CFSv2 and NMME multi model ensemble forecast below.

nino

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has recently been in a positive phase and the recent dip is forecast to be short lived with a return to a positive phase withing a week or so. A positive phase, if maintained implies a milder wetter winter 2019/2020.

noa0919

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

September, so far (18th), has been about half a degree warmer than average with near or slightly above average sunshine and 30 to 45% of monthly rainfall.

Temperature and rainfall anomalies for Spring and Summer are shown below.

climate09

River flows and groundwater in August reflect wetter month but for parts of the E/SE of England drier types have left significantly low river flows and groundwater values. Soil moisture deficit is extensive across much of England and Wales . Details can be found in the August 2019 Hydrological summary PDF 

river09

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (9th September) show 60% storage which is close to or slightly above normal levels.

res09

Looking ahead (September to December) the experimental product from the Global Flood Awareness System (Version 2) suggests reduced flood risk for the SW over the next few months although local flash flooding would not be included in this.

glofas

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

Stratosphere is in summer mode as shown by the ECMWF 50hPa chart for 1200UTC 17th September 2019.

50hpa

In the Antarctic region there has been a sudden stratospheric warming resulting in an early demise of the ozone hole leading to a record short lived ozone hole. The graphic below slows the extent of the ozone hole on the 16th September 2019  with associated 50hPa temperature and contour heights. The ozone being well above normal

shemioz

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

CFSv2 200hPa monthly mean forecast height (contours) and anomaly (lower row) for the period October 2019 to February 2020, based on September data, shows above normal heights throughout the Autumn and Winter but with hints at stronger than average Atlantic jet in December and possible January 2020.

200hpa09

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of October to December 2019 solutions in low resolution from WMO using September data are shown below. Three month season and individual months, top row temperature anomaly and lower row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are area where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO super ensemble which includes DWD, BoM, Seoul, CPTEC Brazil, UKMO, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, ECMWF, CMC and Toulouse seasonal models.  DWD and Beijing are missing.

WMOOND092019

WMO super ensemble

UKMOOND092019

UKMO

WASHOND092019

Washington CFS2

BOMOND092019

BoM Australia

The complete set of graphics is available at weather-info site.

Graphics For the winter period December 2019 to February 2020

09nmmedjf

NMME DJF

09CFS2E3djf

CFS2 DJF

NASADJF0919

NASA DJF

ECEDJF092019

For SW England there is good agreement for above normal temperatures and for normal or above normal precipitation. However precipitation forecasts are often misleading and a shift northwards of the wetter zone as in ECMWF may lead to lower rainfall values.

C: Recent results for (June to August 2019):

Temperature forecast for above normal for the season were good although some output may be a little warm. Many precipitation forecasts were poor but a trend to wetter types was suggested although the month to month detail was poor.

Comparison graphics can be seen at the verification page for June July August 2019

2. Forecast. SW England.

Remainder of Autumn 2019  (October November)

Overall the season is likely to see above normal temperatures with each month probably having above average values.

Rainfall forecasts slightly favour above normal rainfall for the season, perhaps with a less wet October then a wetter November but this is not clear.

Autumn climate: 1981 to 2010 average mean temperature 11 or 12°C but nearer 10°C in rural areas. Maximum temperatures average 14 to 16°C. November normally colder than October. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300 to 400mm, 600 to 800mm over the moors but east of the moors and in lowland Somerset more like 200 to 300mm. 

Winter  (2019 December 2020 January February)  limited data

The indication for a milder than average winter remains the main signal although February may see closer to normal values with December having the largest anomalies compared to the average.  Precipitation is likely to be above average especially in December, and possibly parts of January, although February may see nearer normal. Below average snowfall is more likely than above average.

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall; Dec and Jan typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Autumn average 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

Spring 2020  (March April May) very limited data

Above average temperature for the season but May could be a less mild month. Precipitation uncertain  but possible near average although Pparts of April or May could be drier.

Spring climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 9 or 10°C but a few degrees cooler over the moors. Roughly Mar 7 or 8°C Apr 8 or 9°C  May 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 200 to 300mm lowest values in E Devon and over parts of Somerset.

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA

Review and Experimental Long Range Forecast for SW England. August 2019.

Published 23 August 2019.

GDPR statement: Please note that the author of this blog does not set cookies but the host “wordpress.com” sets multiple cookies which are outside of the authors control. You can view their cookie policy here. 

1. Influences.

Changes in sea temperature.

2019augssta

Except for an area between 10 and 40 degrees West, just south of 50 deg North the Atlantic continues to warm above the long term average and the tropical area is forecast to remain slightly above average through the turn of the year into 2020.

tna_anom_20190801

In the Pacific weak or neutral El-Nino conditions have become establish and are likely to remain similar through the Autumn and Winter period – see CFSv2 and NMME multi model ensemble forecast below.  The latest forecast from Tropical Storm Risk (University College London) along with NCEP have slightly increased the number of expected Atlantic tropical storms for the remainder of the period.

201908nino

The North Atlantic Oscillation index (shown by a 500hPa index in the image below) has been in a negative phase for much of the period since April 2019. This translates for the summer period to a colder/wetter phase for the UK as indicated by the wet June. Recent NAO forecasts have moved to a positive phase and are forecast to remain positive at least in the short term suggesting drier and warmer types are more likely but if a positive phase was maintained it would lean towards a milder wetter winter?

201908nao

NAO background information see the Met Office NAO information.

Recent Climatology

August so far (23rd) has been wetter than average, slightly warmer but with less sunshine –  leading to a warmer than average summer. The temperature and rainfall anomalies from Spring onward are shown below.

201908temp

201908rain

The picture for rainfall is more mixed but many places will probably end up with above average rain for the the summer season. A few parts of the SW may be close to average depending on the rain total in August –  see the June + July anomalies below.

201908jjrain

River flows and groundwater in July reflect that drier month. More details can be found in the July 2019 Hydrological summary PDF 

201908riverflow

201908ground

The reservoir levels in the SW of England (18th August) show 65% storage which is close to or slightly above normal August level.

201908resev

Looking ahead (Aug to Nov) the experimental product from the Global Flood Awareness System (Version 2) suggests reduced flood risk for the SW over the next few months although local flash flooding would not be included in this.

201908glofas

Atmosphere: Predictions.

A:  1: Stratosphere

Stratosphere is in summer mode as shown by the ECMWF 50hPa chart for 1200UTC 22nd August 2019.

20190850hpa

A: 2: Upper Troposphere

CFSv2 200hPa monthly mean forecast height (contours) and anomaly (lower row) for the period September to November 2019, based on 8th August data, show above normal heights throughout the Autumn but with hints at strong Atlantic jet (on average) developing for November.

z200SON0819

B: Lower Troposphere:

A selection of September to November 2019 solutions in low resolution from WMO using August data. Three month season and individual months. Top row temperature anomaly and mid row precipitation anomaly.

White areas are area where the probabilities of below/normal/above are similar hence there is no overall signal for this period from the WMO super ensemble which includes DWD, BoM, Seoul, CPTEC Brazil, UKMO, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, ECMWF,  and Toulouse seasonal models. Moscow, Beijing and CMC missing.

WMOSON082019

Some examples from individual centres are shown below. Full list can be seen at the seasonal forecast page.

Data from NASA

NASASON0819

UKMO

UKMOSON082019

ECMWF

ECLWMOSON082019

JAPAN

TOKSON082019

NMME Autumn 2019

08NMMESON

NMME Winter 2019/20

08NMMEDJF

For SW England, data from  Japan Canada and Germany suggest near normal temperatures but all other models suggest above normal temperatures this Autumn but rainfall forecast are much more varied.

C: Recent results for (May to July 2019):

Temperature forecast for a warming trend to above normal for the season were good although some output may be a little warm. Many precipitation forecasts were poor but a trend to wetter types was suggested although not specifically the much wetter June.

Comparison graphics can be seen at the verification page for May June July 2019

2. Forecast. SW England.

Autumn 2019  (September October November)

Overall the season is likely to see above normal temperatures, again hints at being slightly above normal in September then much milder later in Autumn.

Rainfall forecasts slightly favour above normal rainfall for the season, perhaps with a less wet start in September and a wetter end of Autumn but this is not clear. Some linger drier periods are suggested but no agreement as to when (may straddle a month and be missed by monthly anomalies)

Autumn climate: 1981 to 2010 average mean temperature 11 or 12°C but nearer 10°C in rural areas. Maximum temperatures average 14 to 16°C. November normally colder than October which is colder than September. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 300 to 400mm, 600 to 800mm over the moors but east of the moors and in lowland Somerset more like 200 to 300mm. September often drier than October or November.

Winter  (2019 December 2020 January February)  limited data

The indication for a milder than average winter remains the main signal. Precipitation is likely to be near or above average although there are hints that parts of the S and E parts of the S and E of the region may have normal or below average values. Below average snowfall is more likely than above average.

Winter Climate: 1981-2010 average temperature values for lowland areas 7°C in the West and 5°C in the East. Rainfall; Dec and Jan typically wetter than February. 1981-2010 Autumn average 300-400 mm lowlands but 200-300 mm areas to E of Dartmoor. Snow climatology less than 5 days lying snow over lowland areas 5 to 10 hills, say hills around 200 metre elevation – one in three years have no lying snow.

Spring 2020  (March April May) very limited data

Above average temperature for the season but May could be a colder month. Precipitation near average or below but May could be wetter than average,

Spring climate: 1981-2010 average mean temperature 9 or 10°C but a few degrees cooler over the moors. Roughly Mar 7 or 8°C Apr 8 or 9°C  May 11 or 12°C. Average 1981 to 2010 rain 200 to 300mm lowest values in E Devon and over parts of Somerset.

 

3. Caution.

Experimental Long Range Forecasts do not have a good success rate. The data used for the above forecast summary can be seen at  here.

The attempt at a Regional Forecast for SW England aims to test whether such a forecast of temperature and rainfall variation from average can be made using numerical model data available on the internet. The forecast should not be used for any other purpose. A brief verification summary for the UK and Eire is routinely published at http://www.weather-info.co.uk/wxsvc/Verification.html or Click here for the Teignmouth and Dawlish summary

4. References.

SST anomaly NOAA Remote Sens. 2014, 6(11), 11579-11606; doi:10.3390/rs61111579

IRI statistics: Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

UK climate details see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/

NMME information:   http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

CFS2  info

GLOFAS Acknowledgement: Data were provided by the Global Flood Awareness System – GloFAS (http://www.globalfloods.eu/) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Reference: Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161-1175, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.

‘Copernicus Products’  as listed in the C3S or CAMS Service Product Specification or any other items available through an ECMWF Copernicus  http://climate.copernicus.eu

International seasonal monthly data from WMO

Stratospheric Diagnostics from Japan Met Agency and Free University Berlin

Climate data from The Met Office UK and NCEP USA